Plus: Are traders getting too confident?

GM. Your fruit salad of the day has been delivered - everything’s fresh, no bruised bananas here.

Today's mix:

🍍 Futures market's heating up + big events this week.

🫢 Ray Dalio says people should put 15% of their portfolio into Bitcoin (or gold).

🍋 Bybit vs. KuCoin, Texas prosecutors wanna keep $2.4M worth of seized BTC + more

🍍 Market flavor today

Crypto Market Cap: $3.87T 0.5% (24H)
Name		Price	24H	7D
	Bitcoin BTC	$116,740.88	0.59%	-1.69%
	Ethereum ETH	$3,733.91	0.06%	0.81%
	XRP XRP	$3.07	-0.77%	-12.42%
	BNB BNB	$797.98	-2.27%	4.73%
	Solana SOL	$179.45	-2.63%	-11.39%

Sure, crypto today might look like your homie who passed out 10 minutes into movie night but swears they were just 'resting their eyes'.

But don't be fooled - traders are wide awake, and they have their risk mode activated.

One of the clearest signs of this risk appetite is what's happening in the futures market.

Futures trading lets people bet on where prices will go, often using leverage.

The upside? Bigger potential profits.

The downside? Much higher risk.

Even a small price move in the wrong direction can wipe out positions and cause liquidations, where traders are forced to exit at a loss.

And right now, a lot of money is tied up in these trades.

According to QCP, the total value of perpetual futures (aka futures with no expiration date) has hit its highest point this year:

👉 $45B in Bitcoin;
👉 $28B in Ethereum.

Translation: traders are feeling hella bold.

That growing risk appetite can also be seen within the futures market itself:

👉 Bitfinex says that Bitcoin's share of total futures positions has dropped from 51% to 41%;

👉 Meanwhile, Ethereum's share has increased from 17% to 26%.

This tells us that traders are rotating away from the more stable BTC and into ETH, which tends to be more volatile, and therefore more appealing when people are chasing short-term profits.

This makes the market more fragile.

And that's not all: funding rates (basically the fee you pay to hold a long position) are now above 15% on major exchanges.

That’s extremely high.

It means a ton of people are making bullish bets, and they’re willing to pay a lot just to stay in those trades.

When this happens, the market tends to flip the other way.

QCP notes that some bigger players are already de-risking - taking profits or hedging just in case things turn.

And while ETH at $4K and BTC at $120K are still within reach, many traders now see those levels as likely points of profit-taking, not guaranteed breakouts.

So momentum is driving things higher - but with that comes fragility.

If something shakes confidence, like a surprise headline or weak economic data, the reaction could be fast and messy.

And with this week’s loaded calendar, there’s plenty that can shake things up:

🗓️ Wednesday: FOMC meeting + US digital asset stockpile report;

🗓️ Thursday: June PCE inflation data;

🗓️ Friday: July jobs report + Trump’s tariff deadline.

TL;DR: confidence is high for now, but be ready for volatility.

🥝 Memecoin harvest

Just when you thought it was safe to ignore dog coins…

Data as of 10:20 AM EST.

Check out these memecoins and plenty more here.

👍 Ray Dalio approves of Bitcoin

What we spoke about in today's market update section is mostly short- to mid-term stuff.

But in the long term, we're still solid.

Don’t believe me?

… ok. Meanie 😔

But maybe you’ll believe Ray Dalio - a super-famous investor and billionaire who started Bridgewater Associates, the largest hedge fund in the world.

He's the dude who called the 2008 financial crisis before it happened, predicted the dot-com bubble burst, and has been consistently right about major economic changes for years.

So, when he says something, everyone takes notes.

And he said that people should put 15% of their portfolio into Bitcoin or gold for the "best return-to-risk ratio."

Why? Because America's debt situation is, and I quote the vibe, absolutely f*cked.

The US national debt is around $36.7T. To put this in perspective, that's about $100K for every single person in America, including newborn babies.

And Dalio says that the US government will likely need to borrow another $12T just to keep up with payments on the debt it already has.

But don't think it's just an American problem. Dalio noted that other Western countries, including the UK, are caught in the same "debt doom loop."

According to Dalio, this mess means these traditional currencies will continue to get absolutely rekt compared to "hard currencies" like Bitcoin and gold – which he described as an "effective diversifier."

Now, to be completely fair, he did say that he prefers gold to Bitcoin.

...BUT!

He mentioned Bitcoin as a legit option at all.

And coming from someone like him, that's enough for it to be a big deal.

🍋 News drops you can't miss

🤔 Not sure if you vibe more with Bybit or KuCoin? We made a comparison to help you sort it out.

🚓 Prosecutors in Texas are asking a court to let them keep $2.4M in Bitcoin seized by the FBI. The wallet was tied to the Chaos ransomware group.

👀 Tennessee man allegedly stole $400K in cash + 5.5M XRP from Nancy Jones, widow of country singer George Jones. Police say the money was taken directly from her home.

🍌 Juicy memes