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Political pressure is creeping into the Fed
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The market feels like it just heard a noise downstairs at 2 AM. Not screaming, just kind of standing there, holding a bat, whispering, "Did you hear that too?" The reason: markets reacted to new legal pressure on Fed Chair Jerome Powell and what that could mean for US monetary policy. News started circulating that the US Department of Justice is advancing a criminal investigation related to Powell's past congressional testimony about cost overruns at the Fed's HQ renovation. Powell publicly denied wrongdoing and stated the renovation was handled according to law. ... But the key issue for markets wasn't the renovation itself - it was the implication that the Fed chair could face political or legal pressure to loosen interest-rate policy sooner than expected.
Markets immediately repriced that risk: 👉 Gold set a new all-time high (translation: investors started hedging against weaker confidence in US monetary policy and the dollar); 👉 Bitcoin rose to $92K. This happened because if investors believe political pressure could influence the Fed, they begin pricing earlier rate cuts, lower real yields, and higher long-term inflation risk. Bitcoin doesn't need to be a perfect hedge to benefit from that trade - it just needs to be an alternative asset with global liquidity. In that moment, it was. But as the initial reaction faded, price stabilized. Bitcoin pulled back toward $90.5K. That wasn't a reversal - it was the market pausing. The headline changed expectations, but there was no confirmation yet that policy outcomes would actually change. So, traders stopped chasing and decided to wait.
What matters is whether upcoming events validate the current narrative or kill it: 🗓️ Tomorrow: CPI and Core CPI release This is the most important data of the week. A soft print supports the idea of easier policy ahead. A hot print undermines the entire "political pressure = rate cuts" narrative. 🗓️ Wednesday: Supreme Court ruling on Trump's tariffs, PPI and Core PPI release Tariffs directly affect inflation expectations and the dollar. PPI tells you whether inflation pressure is building upstream - critical confirmation after CPI. 🗓️ Thursday: Senate voting on Clarity Act This matters because this Act tells the market what's legal and what's not - which tokens count as securities, which don't, and what US exchanges are actually allowed to run without worrying about a surprise lawsuit. And less legal guessing = more institutional money willing to show up. So yeah. The market isn't bullish or bearish right now. It's suspicious. And when markets get suspicious, they don't relax. They wait, finger hovering over the buy button... bat still in hand.
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