There has been a lot of speculation regarding Bitcoin prices recently. More precisely - will Bitcoin crash? And if it will… When will Bitcoin crash?
There’s no secret that Bitcoin (same as most other cryptocurrencies) is experiencing a major downfall. What started as a minor crash back at the beginning of 2018 turned into a seemingly never-ending spiral of crashing and lowering in price.
Whilst browsing and sorting through the net, you might encounter many different explanations and speculations. Today we’re going to try to sort them out and figure out why is Bitcoin crashing.
Furthermore, I’m going to analyze a few of the most popular speculations about the decline of this cryptocurrency and provide a logical, argument-based answer to the burning question - is Bitcoin going to crash?
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Table of Contents
The Rise of Bitcoin
For some time now, Bitcoin has been known as the icon of cryptocurrencies. But despite its current popularity and recognition in the mainstream, the story was very different at the time of the coin’s inception back in 2009.
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During the days of Bitcoin’s infancy, the cryptocurrency was worth next to nothing. The creator (or creators) nicknamed Satoshi Nakamoto launched Bitcoin at the beginning of 2009, but the coin gained notable value only in 2011.
Somewhere in the first half of 2011 Bitcoin’s price breached the one dollar mark. It was truly a historic moment for the coin, but as time would later go on to show - the first of many.
It was almost normal to see Bitcoin crashing and climbing back up for the next two years or so. And the price swings were quite noticeable, too - the coin would go for anything in the range of $3 to $30. But the first actual shockwave that the early crypto community experienced happened in April 2013. At the beginning of the month, Bitcoin’s price had capped at $266 - more than ever before.
This type of sudden, explosive growth was a clear indicator from the cryptocurrency community to the rest of the world that something’s going on. Suddenly, there were more and more people showing interest in crypto or - more specifically - Bitcoin.
Bitcoin breached the $1000 mark somewhere towards the middle of 2017 and went on to reach its all-time high of almost $18.000 at the end of the year. If we take a look at the beginning of 2018, though, we would see a very different type of a story and for some, an answer to the question - when will Bitcoin crash?
The Fall of Bitcoin
Taking one single glance at the Bitcoin price at the beginning of 2018 might leave you very confused - the value of the coin went down from almost $18.000 at the end of 2017 to $6000 on January 2018.
This was the time when people seriously started to wonder - will Bitcoin crash? Keeping in mind the fact that the crypto’s price has been steadily and surely going down ever since makes it quite obvious why people have started to wonder if the “Bitcoin bubble burst” had finally happened.
Throughout the years there have been many Bitcoin (not to mention other cryptocurrencies) price swings that impacted the world of crypto enthusiasts. That being said, never before have people feared Bitcoin crashing as much as in the recent months.
So… Is Bitcoin going to crash completely? Or will it make a glorious return? Let’s see what some of the experts and journalists have to say about the matter.
Will Bitcoin Crash?
According to Clifford Chi from blog.hubspot.com, the question might be very difficult to answer for a wide variety of reasons.
First of all, when considering the question “will Bitcoin crash?”, it is necessary to take a couple of things into perspective. Let’s start with the positive aspects that might persuade the coin to grow.
The Positive Side of Bitcoin
If the word “blockchain” is the first thought that pops up in your head when thinking about Bitcoin, you’re on the right track.
Mr. Chi thinks (and most of the crypto community would probably tend to agree) that blockchain is one of the main factors that would keep Bitcoin alive and running. After all, this type of technology provides both fast AND secure types of transactions between two parties, eliminating any need of a third one (i.e. banks).
Currently, quite a few companies are developing and improving their versions of the blockchain, having invested hundreds of millions of dollars into their respective projects. This fact alone tends to sway the naysayers, for when thinking about “will Bitcoin crashes?” it is hard to ignore the ever-growing interest in the blockchain technology.
Another reason for a possible Bitcoin growth that Hubspot’s Clifford Chi emphasizes is that this coin (and cryptocurrencies in general) are very scarce, yet useful.
Mr. Chi stresses the fact that rare things are valuable. Their natural scarcity and limited supply equate to these things being quite sought after, which in turn makes their prices rise.
Cryptocurrencies are a great example of that. At any given time, the supply of one or another crypto coin has a set amount that will most likely never be raised or breached. Add the fact that cryptos are very useful and versatile to the equation and what you get is a never-ending demand in the crypto world.
Furthermore, Bitcoin has an advantage over the other cryptocurrencies in the market - its fascinating popularity and “rise to fame” story has opened the gates of mainstream success. Today it is considered odd and unusual to meet someone who has never heard about Bitcoin. Add all of these factors up and you get a pretty solid reason for why it would be unlikely to see Bitcoin crashing.
The Negative Side of Bitcoin
On the other hand, though, Clifford Chi from hubspot.com also mentions the possible factors behind Bitcoin’s decline. Probably the biggest ones are bad press and security issues. While bad press might persuade some people to turn their backs on Bitcoin, the lack of effective security might harm the way that this coin is perceived.
As Mr. Chi summarized, it is very difficult to predict a solid answer to the speculations will Bitcoin crash. If the crypto community’s lucky, the rest of the world will keep on participating in the growing of blockchain and various cryptocurrencies, which in turn will most likely lead to Bitcoin’s success.
We see a very different type of prediction when we look at what cnbc.com has to say about Bitcoin crashing.
CNBC reference Nouriel Roubini - a well-known economist - when talking about the “Bitcoin bubble burst”. N. Roubini has even been quoted saying that Bitcoin is the “biggest bubble in human history”.
Mr. Roubini thinks that Bitcoin is not only going to crash - it’s going to reach dead zero. He furthers these claims by stating that “HODL nuts” are going to cling onto their Bitcoins and experience a major loss of revenue because of that.
N. Roubini also mentions that a lot of scams are going to emerge out of this, most notably - wash trades. Wash trading is an act of selling something on the market and then quickly rebuying it yourself. This is done to manipulate the market in a way that’s beneficial to the initial seller. The economist suggests that this is going to be one of the many ways that Bitcoin enthusiasts are going to try and keep this coin alive.
When taking a look into predictions like this, the question “will Bitcoin crash?” becomes more of a gloomy prophecy rather than a speculative question.
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Forbes.com tries to answer the question “will Bitcoin crash?” by referencing the Bitcoin bubble burst.
According to Forbes, this type of economic burst happens in three stages:
- First of all, there’s a period of slow and (sometimes not so) steady growth. For Bitcoin, this period lasted from its inception in 2009 until early in 2017.
- Then there’s the “irrational” period where everybody and their mothers are pitching in simply to make a quick profit with little regard to the fact that things might go south really fast. 2017 in its entirety is a great example of this when it comes to Bitcoin.
- Finally, the crash. Everyone tries to escape ASAP yet they still don’t realize that the ship is going to keep on sinking, so to speak. Bitcoin is currently in this final stage and has been here since the very beginning of 2018.
Forbes explains the “Bitcoin bubble burst” situation, yet when confronted with the question “is Bitcoin going to crash?”, things become a bit more tricky.
Forbes.com elaborate on the fact that a cryptocurrency's value is directly proportional to its real-world usage. Cryptos (Bitcoin included) will always emerge out of “crash and burn” scenarios as long as they have a real, important usage.
While Nouriel Roubini didn’t even consider the question “will Bitcoin crash?” and even had a specific (be it pessimistic) answer for “when will Bitcoin crash?”, both blog.hubspot.com and forbes.com were a bit more open with their approach. This just goes to show how hard it is to predict the possible outcome of events, especially with such a volatile matter as Bitcoin.
As you’ve probably noticed from the examples and opinions shown above, people tend to think very differently when it comes to Bitcoin’s future.
Will Bitcoin crash? There is a lot of evidence supporting both sides of the argument. On one hand, Bitcoin is a staple of cryptocurrencies - it has become an example of how far cryptos have come in the past couple of years. Bitcoin’s emergence into the mainstream also opened up a lot of new doors - people have started talking about it more and more, which in turn inflated the coin’s price, popularized blockchain, allowed the inception of new blockchain technology-based startups, etc.
On the other hand, though, Bitcoin has also had its fair share of downfalls. The huge burst that it is currently experiencing has made even the toughest, most adamant Bitcoin supporters re-evaluate their approach towards this coin. Furthermore, Bitcoin’s crash seemed to drag most of the other cryptos down with it.
The world of cryptocurrencies is an unpredictable one - prices of certain specific coins can skyrocket or plummet without no apparent reason. What people often tend to forget when thinking about “will Bitcoin crash?” is that there are hundreds (if not thousands!) of various factors that influence the market every minute of every day. For an average person, it’s quite impossible to keep up with all of the latest news and details, especially in the world of cryptocurrencies.
At this point, you now know about the history (both the good and the bad times) of Bitcoin’s rise to power and some of the predictions surrounding the everlasting question - will Bitcoin crash?
You’ve probably noticed that in the world of cryptocurrencies, anything can happen at any given time. Cryptos have a reputation of being extremely volatile - it's sometimes almost impossible to tell the reasoning behind their price changes. For this reason alone it becomes almost impossible to predict the future of Bitcoin with utmost precision. Your best bet is to keep in mind the opinions of expert economists, crypto enthusiasts and other professionals in the field. At the end of the day, though, you should always make up your mind.
Always take other people’s opinions with a grain of salt. No one can be 100% sure about the future of any cryptocurrency in the market to date - it’s all mostly educated (or, in some cases, ignorant) speculations and guesswork. In addition to experts, don't forget to visit cryptocurrency-related chat hubs and forums. The people in such places are usually eager to help.
Whatever you decide to do, I wish the best of luck in all of your Bitcoin (and cryptocurrency in general) related ventures.