Trade Deal Nears: Bitcoin’s Surge Faces a Reality Check

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US-China Trade Deal Nears: Bitcoin’s Surge Faces a Reality Check

Written by Aaron S.,

Editor-In-Chief

Last Updated: May 12, 2025

Key Takeaways

Bitcoin's response to a US-China trade deal may reveal if it is truly seen as a safe haven during global economic uncertainty;
Bitcoin rose from $75,000 to $95,000 while stocks fell, which raised questions about what’s fueling its gains;
If Bitcoin keeps rising post-deal, it may signal that tariffs were not a key factor in its recent price surge.

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US-China Trade Deal Nears: Bitcoin’s Surge Faces a Reality Check

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With the United States and China moving closer to a possible trade agreement, Bitcoin's BTC $104,076.93 price reaction may offer clues about how the digital asset is used during global economic tension.

Some traders believe that if Bitcoin continues to perform well after a deal is confirmed, it may indicate that global trade concerns did not drive the recent price surge.

When President Donald Trump introduced new tariffs on Chinese goods in April, the S&P 500 and Nasdaq declined. Bitcoin, on the other hand, fell to around $75,000 but later rebounded and closed April near $95,000.

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Crypto trader @DaanCrypto noted in a May 11 post on X, "Theoretically speaking, if the trade uncertainty was what was making BTC outperform, it should stop outperforming after we hit the most important deal, which includes China".

On May 11, the White House reported "substantial progress" in the ongoing talks with China, though no final agreement has been announced yet. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent said more details would follow soon and described the discussions as "productive".

If Bitcoin continues to rise even after a deal is finalized, @DaanCrypto suggests it would be fair to assume that tariffs have not played a major role in driving the price. Instead, other factors, such as market trends, investor interest, or upcoming events like the Bitcoin halving, could be behind the gains.

Recently, Michael Ellis, deputy director of the Central Intelligence Agency (CIA), shared his thoughts on Bitcoin and other cryptocurrencies. What did he say? Read the full story.