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Paradigm Flags Double-Counting in Polymarket Trading Data
Last Updated: December 09, 2025
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Key Takeaways
- Paradigm researcher Storm found that Polymarket’s trading data appears inflated due to double-counting on analytics sites;
- The platform’s system records each trade twice, once for the maker and once for the taker, which causes overstated volumes;
- The error affects both notional and cashflow volume metrics, driven by Polymarket’s complex on-chain data structure.
A researcher from investment firm Paradigm has found that Polymarket’s reported trading activity might appear higher than it actually is.
Storm, a researcher at Paradigm, stated in a post on X that most tracking tools have been "double-counting Polymarket volume not related to wash trading". The error occurs because the platform’s blockchain contains multiple entries for the same transaction.
According to Storm, the way Polymarket’s system logs transactions is partly to blame. When a trade takes place, it generates two “OrderFilled” records, one for the maker, who had a standing order, and one for the taker, who completed the deal.
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These two records reflect the same trade, but from different perspectives. However, many analytics sites have been adding the two entries together, which makes the overall volume appear twice as large as it really is.
Storm said this issue affects both of the common measures used for prediction market activity, "notional volume" and "cashflow volume".
The mistake has spread because Polymarket’s blockchain data is complex, and many analysts rely on methods that do not fully account for its trade structure.
The researcher added that Polymarket trades can involve simple exchanges or more complex processes called "splits" and "merges", in which both sides exchange money and take opposite positions.
The National Office for Gambling (ONJN), Romania’s gambling authority, recently decided to block access to Polymarket. Why? Read the full story.
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