Luke Gromen Warns: Bitcoin Could Slip to $40,000 by 2026

Crypto News Cryptocurrencies

Written by Aaron S.,

Editor-In-Chief

Last Updated: December 15, 2025

Key Takeaways

Luke Gromen expects Bitcoin could drop near $40,000 by 2026 as market and investor conditions shift;
He believes gold and some equities now better reflect the “debasement trade” than Bitcoin does;
Weak technicals, lagging gold performance, and quantum risk have reduced Bitcoin’s short-term appeal.

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Luke Gromen Warns: Bitcoin Could Slip to $40,000 by 2026

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Luke Gromen, a global macro analyst, has warned that Bitcoin BTC $86,532.52 might fall toward the $40,000 range by 2026.

He noted that shifting economic conditions and changing investor sentiment are weighing on Bitcoin’s short-term outlook.

During an interview on the RiskReversal podcast, Gromen reaffirmed his long-term belief that traditional currencies will lose value over time as governments rely on inflation to manage debt.

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However, he noted that gold and certain stocks are currently performing better than Bitcoin at capturing that theme. He said:

Basically, everything but gold and the dollar are likely to get waylaid.

The idea behind this “debasement trade” is that inflation and weaker currencies help governments reduce the real value of their debts. As a result, investors often seek assets with limited supply, such as gold, commodities, or Bitcoin, to preserve their purchasing power.

Gromen pointed to several warning signs for Bitcoin. He mentioned its inability to reach new highs relative to gold, the breakdown of key technical levels, and the risks of quantum computing as factors that have reduced its short-term appeal.

Market analyst Jeff Park recently suggested that long-time Bitcoin holders are using a trading method that is holding back the crypto’s price. How? Read the full story.