Polymarket Bets on Nobel Winner Under Official Scrutiny

Written by Aaron S.,

Editor-In-Chief

Last Updated: October 14, 2025

Key Takeaways

The Norwegian Nobel Institute is investigating Polymarket bets placed on María Corina Machado before her 2025 Nobel Peace Prize win;
Officials suspect that confidential details may have leaked, with one trader earning $30,000 and others gaining a combined $90,000;
Polymarket is under scrutiny for possible misuse of insider information ahead of public announcements.

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The Norwegian Nobel Institute, which supports the prize committee in choosing awardees, is reviewing activity on Polymarket, a platform where people can place bets on real-world events.

According to a report by Bloomberg on October 13, the investigation follows an increase in wagers placed on María Corina Machado before her name was revealed as the 2025 Nobel Peace Prize recipient.

Kristian Berg Harpviken, the institute’s director, confirmed the ongoing review and raised the possibility that someone may have accessed confidential information early and used it to make financial gains.

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Data from Polymarket revealed that one participant, using the name "dirtycup", earned over $30,000 after placing nearly $70,000 on contracts predicting Machado's win.

Bloomberg also pointed to three other accounts that earned a combined $90,000 from similar wagers.

Machado, a longtime advocate for political reform in Venezuela, was recognized for her work promoting democracy and human rights.

In a statement from 2024, she described Bitcoin BTC $111,183.46 as a "lifeline" during Venezuela’s financial crisis. She stated that some residents relied on it to preserve their money or fund their departure from the country.

Polymarket, active since 2020, has become a place where cryptocurrency users predict outcomes in areas such as politics, entertainment, and global affairs.

Meanwhile, Shayne Coplan, the founder of prediction market platform Polymarket, has joined the ranks of the world’s wealthiest individuals, according to Bloomberg’s Billionaires Index. How? Read the full story.