Plus: A Harvard economist said Bitcoin would go to $100

GM. Someone left the market in the sun again - it’s fermented and slightly hostile.

Here's the serving today:

🍍 Do we start panicking?

🤨 Harvard economist's prediction: Bitcoin to $100.

🍋 Ledger Recovery Key review, Bitcoin web domains up for auction + more

🍍 Market flavor today

Crypto Market Cap: $3.82T -1.45% (24H)
Name		Price	24H	7D
	Bitcoin BTC	$113,193.83	-0.64%	-6.19%
	Ethereum ETH	$4,206.43	0.26%	-9.52%
	XRP XRP	$2.88	-2.23%	-11.22%
	BNB BNB	$824.96	-0.72%	-2.47%
	Solana SOL	$181.23	1.22%	-7.93%

Yeah, if your anti-crypto uncle calls today, prolly let it go to voicemail… unless you’re in the mood for a “Told ya!”

👉 The majors: red;

👉 Bitcoin ETFs: $523.3M outflows;

👉 Ethereum ETFs: $422.2M outflows;

👉 Fear & Greed Index: still in Neutral, but getting closer to Fear. Matter of fact, the sentiment hasn’t been this bearish since June 22, when fears of war caused panic selling.

So… is unc right? Are we cooked?

Mmm, not really. As Santiment pointed out, markets tend to move the opposite way of what people expect, and this kind of extreme negativity often comes right before a recovery.

CryptoQuant’s CQ Ben added that in the past two bull cycles, Bitcoin showed weakness about 480 days after the halving - right where we are now.

Back then, the pullback lasted another 2 - 4 weeks before prices started increasing again. If that pattern repeats, we could be looking at new highs by late September or early October.

And zooming out even more, Crypto Auris reminds everyone what’s still ahead for us:

👉 Rate cuts;

👉 Altcoin ETF approvals;

👉 Trump’s WLFI launch;

👉 Corporates entering Ethereum;

👉 Strategic crypto reserves;

👉 The list goes on.

His point? Smart money sees all of that coming, and they’re pushing prices down on purpose so they can buy.

So yeah, don't panic, and tell that uncle you'll call him back in a month.

🥝 Memecoin harvest

Imagine explaining any of this to a banker 🏦

Data as of 04:00 AM EST.

Check out these memecoins and plenty more here.

💭 Kenneth Rogoff's take on Bitcoin

You might already know the feeling of hearing some big-name economist, analyst, or investor drop a take on Bitcoin… and it sounds like they learned what crypto is five minutes ago.

We’ve talked about it before - like that Financial Times market columnist who didn't understand the difference between Bitcoin’s scarcity and the scarcity of teeth.

And today’s guest star is Kenneth Rogoff, Harvard professor and former IMF chief economist (you know, a guy with the kind of résumé that usually gains people's trust).

Well... back in 2018, he said Bitcoin was more likely to crash to $100 than ever reach $100K.

Yeah. Aged like milk 😬

And he recently explained what he thinks he got wrong - which we'd like to comment on 👇

"I was far too optimistic about the US coming to its senses about sensible cryptocurrency regulation; why would policymakers want to facilitate tax evasion and illegal activities?"

Translation: when he made his prediction about Bitcoin crashing to $100, he assumed US lawmakers would bring in strict rules early - for example, close tax loopholes, track transactions, restrict criminal use cases.

In his mind, that would've made Bitcoin's demand collapse, because he sees it as mainly used for illegal activity.

Now, sure, he’s half-right here - US regulation has been slow and messy. But he's wrong to think the only result was criminals using Bitcoin.

In reality, that regulatory gap allowed other forms of demand to take root: cross-border payments in countries with unstable currencies, people using Bitcoin as a hedge against inflation, and eventually, institutional adoption.

Even without perfect rules, Bitcoin proved it could attract legitimate, global demand - not just black-market transactions.

“Second, I did not appreciate how Bitcoin would compete with fiat currencies to serve as the transactions medium of choice in the twenty-trillion dollar global underground economy. This demand puts a floor on its price.”

Here he doubles down on the "underground economy" argument - drugs, ransomware, sanctions evasion, and black-market finance.

Sure, Bitcoin plays a role there. But saying that’s the main reason it has value is a bit delulu.

Today, the biggest drivers are institutions (like BlackRock, Fidelity, Strategy) and Bitcoin’s narrative as digital gold.

So, the black market isn't irrelevant - but it's not the core of why Bitcoin trades above $100.

"Third, I did not anticipate a situation where regulators, and especially the regulator in chief, would be able to brazenly hold hundreds of millions (if not billions) of dollars in cryptocurrencies seemingly without consequence given the blatant conflict of interest."

This is his last point - basically saying it’s a problem that regulators themselves can hold crypto without consequences.

Which definitely could be ethically questionable, but once again - this doesn't really explain Bitcoin's price.

Markets don’t move because some policymakers own BTC - they move because trillions are flowing through ETFs, corporate treasuries, and retail traders.

And that’s the thing about economists like Rogoff: they’re great at analyzing assets that fit traditional models - stocks, bonds, currencies backed by central banks - but Bitcoin doesn’t fit that mold.

It doesn’t have cash flows or a central authority. Its price comes from adoption, tech cycles, and network effects. That mix is hard to measure with standard tools.

Which is why even top experts can call for $100 while Bitcoin is climbing toward $100K.

🍋 News drops you can't miss

🤔 Heard about Ledger Recovery Key and not sure if it’s a lifesaver or a red flag? We’ve broken it down in plain English.

🏦 SoFi’s cooking up a new international money transfer service, and it’s running on Bitcoin’s Lightning Network + UMA. They’re planning to launch it later this year.

🧑‍💻 280+ Bitcoin-themed web domains are going up for auction at Lloyds - some registered way back in 2010. Think names like BitcoinWallets(.)com and BitcoinExchanges(.)com.

💼 Former Trump crypto adviser Bo Hines is joining Tether as a strategic adviser. He’ll be guiding the company’s strategy around digital assets and the US market.

💸 Wyoming dropped its own stablecoin - meet the Frontier Stable Token (FRNT). It’s backed by US dollars and short-term Treasuries.

🍌 Juicy memes