Hayes believes Bitcoin price will start surging in 2025 or 2026.
Arthur Hayes, crypto exchange BitMEX co-founder and ex-CEO, has voiced his expectation for a period of substantial Bitcoin (BTC) turbulence in the second half of 2023, attributing the potential volatility to the impending "powder keg" of the US banking crisis and escalating national debt.
Hayes shared his perspective on the upcoming economic scenario and Bitcoin's (BTC) price trajectory during the "What Bitcoin Did" podcast aired on May 26th.
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Contrary to some bullish expectations, he predicted Bitcoin might not surpass the $70,000 level until 2024.
While I think ultimately it will be good for Bitcoin, it could be quite volatile on the up and the downside. I don’t think we get up to $70,000 this year, I think next year is when we cross that barrier, then we get the blow-off top <2025>, <2026> and then it’s Armageddon.
Hayes identified two key triggers for this prospective instability: the widespread practice of quantitative easing, or the expansion of the money supply, and increasing societal unrest. These factors, he argues, may contribute to a significant drop in the value of stocks and cryptocurrency.
Referencing the brewing banking crisis and the US government's massive debt issuance, Hayes underscored the potential for a dramatic market explosion in late 2023:
With the banking crisis, and you have the federal government issuing trillions of dollars of debt because they need to fund themselves, you’re basically putting this powder keg together of a situation that’s going to be exploding in Q3 or Q4 of this year.
His remarks find echoes among other analysts. Tommy Honan, head of market analysis at crypto exchange Swyftx, suggested that easing of debt could stimulate a resurgence in Bitcoin trading and drive up the price.
Known for his bold price predictions, Hayes had previously forecasted a significant drop in Bitcoin's value in April 2020, which did not materialize. With his latest outlook predicting turbulent times for Bitcoin due to economic uncertainties, it remains to be seen how these predictions will unfold in the upcoming months and years.
It is worth noting that recently, US President Joe Biden and House Majority Leader Representative Kevin McCarthy agreed to raise the federal government's enormous debt ceiling.