Plus: Is this the pre-pump quiet we’ve seen before?

GM. We carved up the market like a watermelon at a family BBQ - juice everywhere, and a bunch of people pretending they don’t want the last slice.

🚕 Tourist loses $123K in crypto to a fake Uber driver.

🍋 News drops: Hawk Tuah girl gets a visit from the FBI, LIBRA memecoin drama update + more

🍍 Market flavor today

Find out more about the Fear & Greed Index here.

Crypto Market Cap: $3.42T 3.22% (24H)
Name		Price	24H	7D
	Bitcoin BTC	$108,608.32	4.02%	5.48%
	Ethereum ETH	$2,568.97	4.23%	0.16%
	XRP XRP	$2.39	2.49%	-6.72%
	BNB BNB	$656.65	2.32%	0.81%
	Solana SOL	$171.70	3.56%	-2.73%

For the past six months, Bitcoin’s been laying the groundwork - trading sideways and building strength. At least, that’s what Plan C - the guy behind the Bitcoin Quantile Model - says is happening.

Along the way, some long-time holders took a bit of profit, and new retail panicked and bailed. With most of that extra supply out of the way, there’s less selling pressure = the path is now clearer for the price to move up.

And it is moving. Bitcoin is currently just 1.5% away from its all-time high.

But... retail investors are nowhere to be seen.

And while the average person is just standing there like 🧍, institutions and corporations are loading up.

Proof: since mid-April, there’s been a net inflow of $6.63B into BTC ETFs.

That’s actually bullish, because retail investors tend to show up late - after prices start increasing and the hype kicks in.

So, basically, the rally might just be getting started.

So, what’s next? Are we getting a one-way ticket to the moon soon?

To get a better read, Sina from 21st Capital used the Bitcoin Quantile Model to explain where we are in the bigger cycle.

The model breaks Bitcoin’s price history into quantiles - slices that show how today’s price compares to the past.

Think of it like a heat scale: the lower the percentage, the cheaper Bitcoin is compared to its history; the higher it is, the more expensive it’s getting.

• If Bitcoin is in a low quantile (like under 25%), it’s historically on the cheaper side → possibly undervalued;

• If it’s up in the high range (say, above 75%), it’s getting closer to its historical peaks → possibly nearing a top.

Right now, Bitcoin is priced with a quantile risk score of 64%.

That puts us near the top of the Transition zone - a range that typically comes right before a major rally. A clean breakout above $109K would likely start the Acceleration phase, where prices can move up fast and hard.

But are we blasting off right now? Probably not.

Sina thinks we’re more likely to get a fake breakout first - where Bitcoin briefly pushes above the all-time high but can’t hold it - then pulls back. According to him, the real rally will come in the second half of the year 👀

🥝 Memecoin harvest

Pumps that got me questioning reality:

Data as of 04:50 AM EST.

Check out these memecoins and plenty more here.

🧃 Sip of knowledge

You: "I’ve never mined Bitcoin before."

Also you, in about five minutes: mining Bitcoin 😎

And even if you have mined before, just not on Binance Pool - this one's for you.

They’re running an event for new miners - with a 1,000 USDC prize pool in token vouchers on the line.

To join it, all you have to do is sign up on Binance, pass KYC, mine a little BTC, and do a some extra tasks.

And since BitDegree’s got your back, there’s a Mission to walk you through the whole thing - plus up to 1,000 Bits for finishing it.

Deadline: August 7. Regret level if you ignore this: 10/10.

🚬 Smoking kills… and steals crypto

Among the many reasons why you should stop / never start smoking: today’s story.

(And if you’re like, “Well, I vape, so I’m good” - hell no, vaping is just as bad plus it’s cringe, so... technically worse.)

Anyways, meet Jacob Irwin-Cline, a tourist from Portland, Oregon, who had a two-day layover in London. That's obviously too long to just stay at the airport drinking overpriced coffee - he went out exploring.

One night, that exploration led him to The Roxy, a nightclub in Soho.

He had a great night (ok, this might actually be a blatant lie - I wasn't there and I didn't ask - but it makes the story juicier, so let’s keep it), and around 1:30 AM, he decided to call it. Uber time.

As he stepped outside and said bye to his friends, a private hire driver waved him over, calling out the name Jacob had saved in the app. The guy looked like his driver’s profile pic, claimed to be Mohammed, which matched the name in the app.

Jacob didn’t have the time to double-check the license plate or the car make. Not good, but, let's be real, what are the odds of a name and face match not being his ride?

The ride started fine. The guy seemed super chill, super nice. Offered Jacob a cigarette.

“I stopped smoking,” Jacob said.

“Oh, c’mon,” the guy replied.

“... Sure, if you want to bond over a cigarette.”

Nothing too crazy so far, right?.. Wrong.

It wasn’t just a cigarette. It was spiked with a drug that knocks you out while keeping you conscious enough to follow instructions

Now, a bit of background: Jacob’s a crypto investor, who discovered Bitcoin when he was a teenager. And I think you can already guess where this story's going.

He blacked out for what he thinks was 20 - 30 minutes. During that time, he unwittingly gave the driver access to his phone - and with that, access to his crypto wallets.

He woke up alone in a strange part of London. The damage? About $123,000 gone. That included $72,000 in XRP, $50,000 in Bitcoin, and the rest in smaller altcoins - which was most of his wealth.

Now, this is where I’d normally do a callback to the smoking thing - but it obviously isn't the moral of the story here.

The real takeaway is that as crypto goes mainstream, so do the scams. And they’re not just online anymore - they’re in the real world too. In taxis. In bars. In random "friendly" moments with a stranger.

So, take precautions! Never leave your drink unattended, check the car before you get in, don’t overshare your crypto wins. Basically, be a little paranoid - it’s self-defense.

... Well, okay, and don't smoke. It's bad for you.

🍋 News drops

🚔 Haliey Welch, aka the Hawk Tuah Girl, said she got a surprise visit from the FBI. They showed up at her grandma’s house asking to talk to her about the HAWK token.

🤨 Argentina’s president, Javier Milei, shut down the task force that was investigating the Libra memecoin scandal - a case he was directly involved in. Apparently, they “fulfilled their purpose,” though no clear explanation was given. Not suspicious at all.

🔎 Google’s DeepMind launched a tool that can spot whether something - like text, pics, audio, or video - was made with its AI. What’s that smell? Oh, it’s just the sweat of all students who wrote their entire final projects with Google AI.

🍌 Juicy memes