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Plus: Ethereum's next big upgrade is coming - here's what it'll change |
GM. If crypto were a fruit salad, today's serving is 80% melon, 20% chaos. Here's what's in the chaos part: 🍍 Why this bull run feels boring. ⚙️ Ethereum's Fusaka upgrade. 🍋 North Korean fake IT pros, Australia eases stablecoin rules + more |
🍍 Market flavor today | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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A lotta people have been saying this bull run feels… kinda boring. In past cycles, there was wild hype, crazy altcoin gains, and overall excitement. But this time around, not so much. Why? That's what tech entrepreneur Kyle Chassé and Into The Cryptoverse founder Benjamin Cowen tried to answer in a recent podcast. Cowen explains it like this: every cycle gives smaller gains than the last. In the early days, Bitcoin could do insane returns, but now that the market is bigger and more mature, those returns have shrunk. For example, Bitcoin started this cycle at ~$15K and has gone as high as $124K - that's a 7 - 8x jump. In the stock market, that would be considered massive; but in crypto, where you can see 50x increases... yeah, it feels boring. Add to that the fact that altcoins haven't moved that much, and the market feels less thrilling for those chasing huge multipliers. But even though the excitement feels muted, Bitcoin's overall price pattern is in line with its previous cycles. In almost every cycle so far, Bitcoin has peaked in the fourth quarter (October - December) of the year after a halving - that was the case in 2013, 2017, and 2021. In each of those years, Bitcoin first made a local high in August, dipped in September, and then increased to its ultimate top in Q4. Right now, we're in the same post-halving year and have already seen the August high and September pullback, which could be setting us up for another Q4 peak. And what about altcoins? Cowen says they usually peak a little later, but by the time you see alt season, that often means the Bitcoin bull run is already ending. And while certain coins might keep moving higher after Bitcoin tops, the overall market tends to follow Bitcoin's lead. All that being said, some analysts like Raoul Pal and Arthur Hayes think that government spending, stimulus, and lower interest rates could stretch the bull market into 2026. Cowen doesn't rule it out, but his base case is still that the top happens in 2025. For several reasons: 👉 Again, repeating cycle patterns; 👉 Macro factors like rising long-term interest rates or an increase in unemployment could put pressure on crypto as early as 2026, so it'll be harder for the cycle to extend that long. Either way, the good news: bear markets are getting less brutal. Where Bitcoin once saw 90% drops, recent cycles have been closer to 70 - 80%. Painful, sure, but more manageable. So, is this bull run boring? Maybe. But if history is any guide, the coming months could be a lot more exciting than the year has felt so far. |
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